By: John Rauser - Farecast Fareologist
The Tuesday sales this week are a bit thin. Laguardia - Orlando dropped $20 for travel after September 1 in a flurry of price adjustments from Jet Blue, Delta and American. Los Angeles - Newark also fell as American lowered prices $20 for departures after September 5. Why so little action this week? Well, after last week’s sales, there is reason to believe that prices are nearing the bottom.
Over the last month, we’ve watched the lowest price airfare for a broad range of popular cities fall an average of $45. Since we’re moving into the shoulder season between Summer and Thanksgiving, we certainly expected fares to fall, but the drop has been particularly steep in the last two weeks as compared to last year.
The graph below shows the how lowest price fares have been tracking year over year. This year’s prices have been a bit below last year’s through most of the Summer, but the bottom really fell out about two weeks ago. As of today, the average lowest price fare is tracking about 10% below last year.
I suspect that things will settle down for a couple of weeks, with the rule being less frequent, smaller fare sales or even price increases. If last year is any guide, prices will creep up through August before dropping again to their annual low in early September.