By: John Rauser - Farecast Fareologist
Peak, off-peak, shoulder, high, low? When exactly are these seasons, and what do they mean for your bank account? The answer, it turns out, depends on where you’re going. Over the next few days I’ll be talking about seasonal trends in airfare. Today I’ll talk about travel within the US. In future posts, I’ll cover travel from the US to Mexico and the Caribbean, and travel from the US to Europe.
Travel within the US
The chart below shows a year of prices for a mix of cities within the US. High prices are tied to specific holidays, and the two popular vacation seasons: Spring break and Summer. The least expensive times to fly are early-May, September through November, between Thanksgiving and Christmas, and just after the New Year. Clearly, if you can schedule your travel during these times you’ll be well on your way to getting a good deal. The rest of this post will be dedicated to strategies for getting a good deal during the most expensive parts of the year.
Spring and Summer: Pay Attention To Day Of Week
The waviness of the line in the chart above is due to variation in prices by day of week: Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays are typically the more expensive days to fly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays are typically the cheapest. However, as I’ve noted recently, the difference between the days of the week (the size of the waves) varies depending on the season.
Compare the waviness during March (the heart of Spring break season) with that of May. In March, choosing the depart during the week might mean a $50 difference in the cost of your ticket, but in May the difference is much smaller. Similarly in Summer, departing on a Friday or returning on a Sunday is going to cost you, but in the Fall, flying on those weekend days doesn’t command nearly the same premium, which makes the Fall a great time to plan a quick weekend getaway.
End of Summer Sales
If you look closely at the graph above, you can see that prices start to fall off for travel after mid-August. If you’re beholden to a school schedule, but don’t need to be back home until early September, this 2-3 week sweet spot can be a great time to squeeze in a Summer vacation and stay under budget.
If you’re planning to book one of these late Summer trips, an important thing to know is that the airlines traditionally launch big end-of-Summer sales in early to mid-July. Be sure to use Farecast’s price graphs and predictions to score the best deal.
Specific Holidays: Stay An Extra Day
For specific holidays, a strategy I like is to spend an extra day at your destination. Take Memorial Day for example; many people get Memorial Day off, and high demand drives up the price of trips returning on that Monday. If you stay one more day, returning instead on Tuesday, you still get that “free” vacation day, and the money you save on airfare can make a big dent in the cost of your hotel for the night. A similar thing happens each year at Thanksgiving. Everyone wants to return home on Sunday. Returning a day or two later can make a $60-$100 difference in the cost of your ticket, a savings that really adds up for a family.
You can also leave a day early. Take, for example, President’s Day weekend in 2007. Prices peaked for flights departing on Friday, February 16th. Departing the day before, on Thursday, could have saved you $30-60, enough to buy some pretty nice chocolates on Wednesday the 14th, Valentine’s day.