By: John Rauser - Farecast Fareologist
This is part three of a series on seasonal trends in airfare for travel to different parts of the world. Part one covered travel within the US, and part two discussed travel from the US to Mexico and the Caribbean. You can also check out my airfare seasonality video on YouTube.
Here’s an interesting chart. It shows a year’s worth of prices to the three major regions, standardized so that for each, 100% is the price on February 1st. This allows us to compare the amount of fluctuation in prices for travel within the US, to Mexico and the Caribbean, and to Europe.
The High Season - Summer
Flying to Europe is expensive to begin with; it’s a long way across the Atlantic, and those international taxes and immigration fees really add up, but this chart shows how crazily expensive Summer travel to Europe is. Within the US you can expect to pay a 30% premium for Summer travel. During the most expensive time to fly domestically all year, Christmas and Thanksgiving, that premium reaches 80%. But for travel to Europe in the Summer, you’re looking at paying a 150% premium, or two-and-a-half times more than in Winter!
If your schedule dictates a Summer trip, one thing to be aware of is that in Southern Europe (e.g. Madrid or Rome) during July and August, the daily highs get into the 80s, too hot for some folks. It is also worth noting that many Europeans, notably Romans and Parisians, take vacation themselves in August, leaving some cities relatively barren with many shops and restaurants closed.
The Spring and Fall Shoulder Seasons
If money is tight, traveling to Europe during the peak Summer months is going to be tough. You might get lucky and score some amazing deal, but it’s probably better to think about either the Spring or Fall shoulder seasons, when the weather is still quite pleasant, and airfares are much more reasonable. Tickets departing in May or September average $350 less than those departing in the Summer months.
To help decide between the Spring and Fall, the BBC has a nice site that offers average climate information for cities throughout the world. For travel to Amsterdam, you may prefer the Spring, which is normally less rainy than in the Fall. The opposite is true for Madrid. September brings highs near 70 in Paris and London, and near 80 in Rome and Madrid. Typical May temperatures in the major European cities are just a little bit cooler then September.
The Off-Season
November through March, with cooler weather and more rainy days bring significantly lower prices. Here’s something I noticed recently: for President’s day/Valentine’s day weekend this year, typical prices for travel to Caribbean were nearly in line with those to Europe. If you prefer museums to beaches, this may be something to keep in mind as a Valentine’s day splurge for next year.